The Teamwork Finance Update - September 2026

RBA holds at 4.35% — but the Big 4 are split on what happens next

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its August 2026 meeting, marking the second consecutive hold. All nine Monetary Policy Board members voted to keep rates on hold, but the decision was described by economists as a "hawkish hold" — the Bank reiterated that inflation remains too high for comfort and signalled it is still willing to raise rates again.

Since that meeting, the Big 4 banks have moved apart on their forecasts. NAB now expects a 0.25% rise at the RBA's next meeting on 29 September 2026, which would take the cash rate to 4.60%. ANZ and CommBank both expect the same increase, but in November instead. Westpac remains the outlier, forecasting a hold through the rest of 2026. For Gold Coast borrowers, that split means it's worth reviewing your loan structure now rather than waiting to see which bank turns out to be right.

Lending conditions are also shifting. APRA's new debt-to-income rule, in effect since February 2026, limits banks to approving no more than 20% of new lending to borrowers with debt six times income or higher. It's a cap on overall lender allocation rather than a personal borrowing limit, but it means options can vary significantly between banks — particularly for investors and self-employed borrowers — with non-bank lenders offering an alternative outside the cap.

Locally, the Gold Coast property market remains resilient. Median house prices sit around $1.18 million and units around $795,000, while rental vacancy across the region is tight at roughly 1.3%, dipping below 1% in some western growth corridors. Combined with a possible rate move before Christmas, it's shaping up as a spring worth being prepared for rather than reacting to. The full breakdown, including practical steps to get ahead of a possible rate rise, is in this month's Teamwork Finance Update newsletter.